# Atlantic Council maps Russian hybrid threats to NATO flank

Published: 2026-10-07 · Severity: routine · Sectors: government-national, energy, defense, infrastructure, transportation
Canonical: https://vorant.io/reports/df756240-1871-5269-b058-280703826357/atlantic-council-maps-russian-hybrid-threats-to-nato-flank

> Atlantic Council report details Russia's military, cyber, espionage, and information operations against Baltic states, Poland, and Romania, and frontline defense responses.

This Atlantic Council 'Russia Tomorrow' series report is a policy and threat analysis examining Russia's coordinated hybrid warfare campaign against NATO's eastern flank states—Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Romania. It covers four threat categories: military coercion (forward-deployed forces, airspace incursions, nuclear signaling via Kaliningrad and Belarus, migration instrumentalization), cyber operations and infrastructure sabotage (DDoS attacks, energy-grid intrusions, undersea cable/pipeline threats, railway sabotage), information warfare (disinformation targeting Russian-speaking minorities, historical revisionism, antisemitic narratives), and espionage/covert operations (spy networks, assassination plots, real-estate acquisitions near strategic sites).

From a cyber-defense perspective, notable incidents include a December 2025 attack on a Polish combined heat-and-power plant serving ~500,000 residents, a 144% year-over-year increase in handled cyber incidents in Poland (nearly 273,000 in 2025), 2022 DDoS attacks on Lithuanian government and private-sector websites attributed to pro-Kremlin groups, GPS interference and aviation/maritime safety disruptions in the Baltics, and cyber/information operations targeting Romanian electoral and judicial institutions during the 2024 election cycle. NATO has responded with initiatives like Baltic Sentry (maritime surveillance) and Eastern Sentry (counterdrone/air defense).

This is a geopolitical and policy-focused report rather than a technical threat intelligence advisory—it contains no IOCs, CVEs, malware samples, or specific TTPs suitable for detection engineering. It is useful for strategic context on Russian state-sponsored hybrid threat posture but does not provide actionable technical indicators. The report recommends NATO and allies shift from reactive deterrence-by-denial toward deterrence-by-punishment with credible costs for Russian provocations.

## Mentioned in this report

- Threat actors: Russia-nexus activity (unattributed)

Source reporting: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/content-series/russia-tomorrow/the-deterrence-gap-how-can-nato-protect-its-front-line-from-russia

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